Unlocks and circulating supply
A token unlock releases units that were previously restricted from transfer or trading. It does not automatically mean selling, but it can increase the supply available to the market.
Read vesting schedules
Review the date, percentage of supply, recipients such as teams or investors, and whether the release is split into stages. Future supply matters alongside today’s circulating supply.
Identify recipients and purpose
Interpret unlocks with demand, utility, holder behavior, and liquidity. A schedule alone cannot predict price direction; ask how the new supply relates to actual demand.
A hypothetical supply change
If 5% of a hypothetical token’s total supply unlocks next month, that does not mean every token will be sold immediately. Team, investor, and ecosystem allocations may have different recipients and contractual restrictions. Hedging or private transfers before the public unlock may also be difficult to observe from public data alone.
Reconcile on-chain records
Read the vesting table and contract addresses in token documentation, and align the dates used for total and circulating supply. Distinguish transfers from labeled wallets, exchange deposits, and foundation wallets, while noting that address labels can be estimates. Reconcile announced unlocks with on-chain events over time.
Limits of price implications
An unlock changes the potential supply available; it does not necessarily cause selling or a price decline. Markets may have priced in the schedule, and released tokens may fund ecosystem incentives. Review liquidity, demand, holder distribution, and the provider’s supply definition rather than assigning a price move to one calendar date.